
The March WASDE raised 2024 red meat and poultry production forecasts, with higher beef, pork and broiler output more than offsetting lower turkey production. Beef processing for 2024 was raised to 26,325 million pounds, and steer price forecasts were lifted by $3 to $183/cwt for March.
Beef import forecasts were also raised.
Higher pork and beef output adds supply that is bearish for hog prices, while higher cattle price forecasts reflect firm demand. The net effect is modest because the changes are small relative to total supply.
After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 78 past neutral report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.