Average pre-report analyst estimates for the March 23 Cattle on Feed report placed feedlot inventories at 108.1 percent of a year earlier, placements at 104.5 percent, and marketings at 101.4 percent. Analysts have underestimated placements in most recent months, and the article discusses whether the USDA survey is the more reliable measure.
Surprises versus pre-report estimates have moved feeder cattle futures sharply. Larger-than-expected placements point to more feedlot demand for feed and more near-term cattle supply.
After 44 past neutral report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (59% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.0%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 78 past neutral report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.0% to +1.0%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.