Oklahoma State's Derrell Peel reports US all-cattle inventory at 93.6 million head on January 1, 2021, down fractionally from a year earlier. Beef cows fell 0.6 percent while dairy cows rose 1.1 percent, and the cattle on feed total was up 0.3 percent.
A slightly smaller cow herd and tight replacement supply support longer-term cattle prices, but current feeder supply is near neutral for feed demand.
After 268 past bullish report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +1.7% over 20.
After 44 past neutral report events, Feeder Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (59% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.0%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.