
USDA lowered its 2021 and 2022 all-milk price forecasts to $18.30 and $18.50 per cwt, and cut most dairy product price forecasts. The agency cited weaker wholesale prices, stronger international competition, softer domestic demand and high stocks, with the midyear cheese stockpile at a record.
Heavy milk output and record cheese stocks point to lower dairy product and milk prices, which weakens the outlook for dairy-linked feed demand and cattle values.
After 273 past bearish report events, MILK moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.