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USDA lowered its 2018 and 2019 all-milk price forecasts, citing recent price declines, high cheese and whey stocks, weak domestic use, and expected Chinese tariff impacts. Heat in western US dairy regions is also limiting milk output and the flow of milk to dryers.
Lower USDA price forecasts and heavy dairy product stocks point to continued downward pressure on milk prices into 2019.
After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.