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USDA's Economic Research Service Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook forecasts 2025 US milk output at 230 billion pounds and 2026 at 231.3 billion pounds, with a larger herd and higher yields. Class III is forecast at $18.20 and the all-milk price at $21.35 for 2025, with a further decline to $20.40 in 2026.
Strong butter and cheese exports are expected to continue.
Rising milk supply with softer dairy product prices suggests continued weakness in farm milk values. Strong export demand for butter and cheese provides only partial offset.
dairyproducer.comTanya EadieSep 22, 2025After 273 past bearish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.4%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
