
Soybean futures sold off heavily overnight after the big grain rally stalled. Early estimates of flood damage in Argentina proved less severe than feared, and drier weather was forecast there for the following week.
Smaller estimated Argentine losses reduce expected tightness in South American soybean and meal supplies, weighing on soybean and soybean meal prices.
After 363 past bearish weather events, SOY moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 118 past bearish weather events, SBM moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.