
Chicago soybean futures fell on Monday on forecasts of crop-boosting rains in Brazil, technical selling and month-end positioning. Brazilian farmers had planted 30% of soy area through Thursday, roughly in line with the five-year average.
Concerns about lower US soy protein levels also weighed on prices.
Rains in Brazil improve planting prospects and reduce near-term supply risk, while lower US protein could shift some export demand toward Brazilian soy, weighing on soybean and meal prices.
After 363 past bearish weather events, Soybeans moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.1%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 118 past bearish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (35% higher; middle half -3.2% to +0.4%), and -1.6% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.