
Analysts expect USDA’s November WASDE to show soybean ending stocks of 332.2 million bushels, above last month’s 315 million, while corn and wheat stock estimates are close to their prior figures. Analysts also expect the US corn yield estimate to fall by 0.6 bushel per acre, trimming production by 54.2 million bushels; the report is due Tuesday.
A larger-than-expected soybean carryout could weigh on soybean prices, while a lower corn yield estimate would tighten projected supply and support corn. The wide range of soybean expectations raises the chance of a notable price reaction to the report.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.