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Earth Sciences New Zealand’s late-October outlook identifies a very strong El Niño as the main climate influence through January and gives Gisborne, Hawke’s Bay and Wairarapa a 55% chance of below-normal rainfall. The outlook also points to warmer conditions and says El Niño may persist into April or May 2027, leaving dry conditions a concern into autumn; confidence in the dry signal is relatively high for the east of the North Island but lower nationally.
Below-normal rainfall could reduce pasture growth and increase the need for purchased feed in eastern North Island, potentially raising feed costs for affected farms; the article gives no specific commodity price forecast.
nzbusinessconnect.co.nzNov 6, 2026After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
