Milk collection has increased in major exporting regions, including New Zealand, the United States, and the European Union, with output up more than 3% over the past 12 months in each. In France, collection is up 1.5% so far in 2026, but heat since May has weakened production momentum; limited forage in Europe and a potentially disruptive El Niño also cloud the outlook.
Demand for high-protein products is lifting milk powder prices, while rising feed costs could slow production.
Potential forage shortages and higher feed costs could curb milk output and tighten dairy supply, supporting milk prices. Stronger demand for high-protein products is also underpinning milk powder prices.
After 32 past bullish weather events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.4%), and +3.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.