Dairy prices were expected to rise at Tuesday's GDT auction, with futures for whole milk powder trading 1-4 percent above the previous event. New Zealand milk output fell 4.9 percent year on year in August, the weakest start to a season in four years.
Analysts expect output to stay low into October's spring flush.
Lower New Zealand output tightens global dairy powder supply, supporting export prices. Weather-driven shortfalls can keep global milk prices firm into the spring.
After 32 past bullish weather events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.4%), and +3.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.