Energy Aspects cut its estimate for China’s November diesel exports by 400,000 tonnes to about 580,000 tonnes, citing lower domestic inventories and weaker export margins. Shipments may be revised higher if domestic demand declines later in the month; other early estimates put exports near 800,000 tonnes, well below August and September levels.
Reduced Chinese export availability could tighten global diesel supply and support prices, although the forecast remains uncertain and shipments could rise if domestic demand weakens.
After 26 past bullish trade events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.9% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -5.6% to +1.6%), and -4.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.