
The International Grains Council cut its 2026/27 global wheat production forecast by 3 million tonnes to 782 million tonnes, citing adverse weather in key growing regions. Global wheat stocks are still projected at 296 million tonnes, while maize production is forecast at 1.234 billion tonnes, slightly lower amid variable crop conditions.
The forecast reduction is modest relative to projected ample stocks, limiting its potential price impact, though it adds some support to wheat and corn prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.