Oil Slides Below $100 a Barrel, With Focus on Iran Outlook After U.S. Midterms

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• Mar 23, 2026Brent Below $100 on Oil, Fuel Swing; US Cites Iran Talks+1.5%
• Apr 8, 2026The Commodities Feed: Oil slumps below $100 after US, Iran agree to two-week ceasefire | ING THINK-13.7%
• Apr 17, 2026Oil price drops below $90 a barrel after Iran says strait of Hormuz is open | Oil | The Guardian+1.3%
• May 21, 2026Oil falls with US-Iran peace talks in focus-11.6%
• Jan 9, 2020Oil Steadies Below $60 in Midst of U.S.-Iran Conflict - Bloomberg-4.1%

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• Mar 23, 2026Brent Below $100 on Oil, Fuel Swing; US Cites Iran Talks+2.2%
• Apr 8, 2026The Commodities Feed: Oil slumps below $100 after US, Iran agree to two-week ceasefire | ING THINK-18.9%
• Apr 17, 2026Oil price drops below $90 a barrel after Iran says strait of Hormuz is open | Oil | The Guardian+2.3%
• May 21, 2026Oil falls with US-Iran peace talks in focus-9.1%
• Jan 9, 2020Oil Steadies Below $60 in Midst of U.S.-Iran Conflict - Bloomberg-3.0%