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Brent crude fell more than 10% to $88.8 a barrel after Iran said the Strait of Hormuz was open. The price remains well below a peak of $119 last month but well above the $72 pre-war level.
Reopening expectations cut the geopolitical premium in crude, lowering energy and transport costs. Prices still far above pre-war levels keep input costs elevated for feed producers.
theguardian.comJillian AmbroseApr 17, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Confirms Brent falling more than 10% on Apr 17 after Iran said Hormuz was open, i.e. a supply-risk premium unwinding.
Confirms Brent falling more than 10% below $90 on the Hormuz-open announcement, supporting supply-risk premium unwinding.
