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U.S. soybean futures fell nearly 6% in October, their worst month of 2026. Ahead of USDA’s November 9 crop and supply-demand reports, analysts expect the already-record yield estimate may rise, while strong domestic crushing demand and a China-led export rebound provide support.
Potentially larger U.S. production would add supply and weigh on soybean prices, while strong crush and export demand could offset some of that pressure. The report may sharpen the balance between bearish crop prospects and supportive demand.
farmprogress.comBruce BlytheNov 6, 2026After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 414 past bullish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -2.1% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 296 past bullish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +2.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
