China's breeding-sow herd stood at 36.02 million at the end of the third quarter of 2026, down 4.7% from the previous quarter and 10.7% year over year. Despite the smaller sow herd, hog slaughter in the first three quarters rose 1.4% year over year to a record 537.39 million head, and pork production increased 3.2% to a record 45.08 million tonnes.
Record slaughter and pork output indicate ample near-term meat supply, weighing on hog prices and supporting feed demand while production remains high. The smaller sow base could constrain hog and feed demand later as it works through the production cycle.
After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.