Brent and WTI rose for a second session after tanker attacks raised concerns about global supply. President Donald Trump said Iran could not act on its nuclear programme without US approval, adding uncertainty about whether Washington would take further action or accept the current situation.
The attacks and uncertain US-Iran outlook increase the risk premium on crude as exports may be disrupted; that risk supports prices despite ongoing diplomatic efforts.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.