
Oil benchmarks were on track for weekly losses of about 12% as election results raised expectations of de-escalation in the Iran war. Prices rebounded for a second day after tanker attacks in the Gulf and Strait of Hormuz renewed concerns about Middle Eastern supply flows.
Hopes for a diplomatic resolution and lower conflict risk weigh on crude, while attacks threatening shipments through a key export route support prices and limit the decline.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.