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The WMO expects below-normal rainfall across parts of the north-west and south-west Pacific from November 2026 to January 2027 as El Niño strengthens. Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, Fiji and Tonga have already reported water shortages, and higher temperatures could worsen drought conditions.
Continued dryness may constrain water availability and agricultural production in affected islands, although the article does not identify a specific crop supply shock or price move.
wmo.intNov 5, 2026After 2,467 past weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
