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A seasonal outlook cited in the article gives a high probability that strong to very strong El Niño conditions will persist into early 2027. In Brazil, below-average rain and above-average temperatures could worsen water deficits and hinder early-season crop establishment in central and northern areas, while rain in the South may benefit first-crop corn but excessive precipitation could increase wheat disease risks and delay soybean planting.
Dryness could impair soybean establishment and require replanting, while excessive southern rainfall could disrupt wheat and soybean operations; both outcomes could tighten affected crop supplies and support prices. The outlook is seasonal and regional, so the eventual price impact depends on realized conditions.
canaonline.com.brNov 5, 2026After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 445 past neutral weather events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
