
Oil prices rebounded on Thursday, with Brent up 2.47% to $96.96 per barrel after touching a two-month low and WTI also gaining. A tanker struck a mine east of the Strait of Hormuz, while the absence of a US-Iran peace agreement and continued weakness in refined-fuel supplies left the market exposed to volatility.
Tanker risks threaten dependable crude shipments, while the slow recovery in refined-product flows keeps fuel supply tight and supports prices. These energy costs can feed through to agricultural production and transport expenses.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.