
President Trump removed Rex Tillerson as Secretary of State and named CIA Director Mike Pompeo, a critic of the Iran nuclear deal, as his replacement. Analysts said the change raises the risk of US withdrawal from the Iran deal and of new sanctions on Venezuela.
Possible US exit from the Iran nuclear deal or new Venezuela sanctions could cut crude supply and lift oil prices, which raises energy and freight costs for feed buyers.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.