US Drought Monitor coverage in the Lower 48 fell to 44% in the week ending November 3, as heavy rain eased conditions in the West, Plains and Minnesota. Drought expanded across Kentucky, Illinois, Indiana and Missouri, and the Lower Mississippi Valley worsened, with 84% of rice production areas in drought.
Dryness in the southern Corn Belt and Mid-South threatens late-season yields and the rice crop, which can support corn, soybean and rice prices. Improvement in the northern Plains and West offsets only part of the concern.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.