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The French Oat-German Bund 10-year spread narrowed by almost 20 basis points after the first round of the French presidential election. The euro strengthened about 1.5 percent against the dollar and rose about 2.3 percent over April.
Polls pointed to Emmanuel Macron winning the runoff.
Expectations of a Macron win lifted European risk appetite and the euro, which affects dollar-denominated commodity prices and European feed import costs. The effect on grain and oilseed prices is indirect.
global-macro-monitor.commacromonApr 30, 2017After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
