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The Institute of Agrarian Market Conditions (IKAR) cut its 2026/27 Russian total grain export forecast from 52.8 to 49.5 million tonnes, and wheat from 42 to 39.5 million tonnes. Under its stress scenario, however, it raised the total grain export estimate to 36.5 million tonnes and wheat to 30 million tonnes.
Russian wheat exports reached 2.9 million tonnes in October, the highest monthly figure of the season.
Russian export volumes remain well below normal levels, keeping global wheat supply tighter and supporting prices, though steady growth from Baltic ports partly offsets Black Sea disruption.
agroinvestor.ruТатьяна Кулистикова, КСКNov 5, 2026After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 180 past bullish report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.7%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
