
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports the El Niño is intensifying, with the Niño 3.4 anomaly at +2.47°C in October 2026 and an 83% chance of surpassing past events in the October-December quarter. In Matopiba, Brazil, low and irregular rainfall in September has left soil moisture insufficient for the start of the 2026/27 soybean planting.
Delayed or uneven planting and heat stress in Matopiba raise the risk of a smaller Brazilian soybean crop, supporting soybean and meal prices and tightening export availability.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.