The Buenos Aires grains exchange warned of high temperatures and limited rain in Argentina's central farming region, ahead of expected cuts to soybean and corn estimates. The Rosario exchange had already cut its 2020-21 soybean estimate to 45 million tonnes.
The exchange forecasts 46 million tonnes each for soybeans and corn.
Continued heat and dryness in the core growing area threaten further yield losses for soybeans and corn, adding to supply concerns. Argentina is a major exporter of both crops, so the dryness supports prices.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.