US Dollar Bears Still Need the Fed to Blink

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Aug 7, 2019U.S. dollar - When will bulls turn to bears?+0.0%
• Jun 20, 2019Dovish Fed Hits The US Dollar | ECONOMETER-1.1%
• Sep 30, 2024US Dollar Forecast: Fed’s easing weighs on the Dollar+0.9%
• May 29, 2026Euro-Dollar: Why Markets Think The ECB Will Hike Before The Fed+0.3%
• Jul 30, 2021US Dollar To Yen Likely To Be Capped Near 110 Say MUFG+0.3%

After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.

• Jun 19, 2026Euro steadies as the US Dollar eases, but hawkish Fed bets limit upside-6.4%
• Jun 14, 2022Fed risk drubs stocks; dollar, bond yields soar | Reuters-7.7%
• Nov 1, 2023Oil falls to settle at 3-week low as Fed policy stance lifts dollar-5.3%
• Sep 18, 2026Ringgit opens higher against US dollar as oil prices ease | The Star-0.3%
• Sep 23, 2020Gold and Silver Hit by Hawkish Fed Boost to Dollar - Markets Insider-1.5%

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• May 23, 2024USD: Fed minutes boost the dollar | IG International-0.0%
• Jan 31, 2017FED Disapointment Sees The US To Canadian Dollar Exchange Rate Slide+0.7%
• Nov 23, 2018Still loonie after all these years: Canadian dollar will still be impaired two years from now, CIBC says - The Globe and Mail-5.6%
• May 15, 2020Feed millers in US to return to soy diets+24.5%
• Nov 29, 2017Canadian dollar hits near 4-week low versus firmer US$ - The Business Times-0.6%