Euro-Dollar: Why Markets Think The ECB Will Hike Before The Fed

After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• May 29, 2026Dollar Faces Bigger Hit Than Euro If Fed, ECB Resume Rate Cuts -- Market Talk-0.2%
• Mar 2, 2020US asset markets: What Fed cuts mean for US Treasuries and the dollar | articles | ING THINK+2.9%
• Jan 23, 2023Dollar edges lower vs euro on ECB rate hike bets | Reuters+0.2%
• Dec 12, 2019Euro buoyed before ECB meeting as Fed forecast knocks dollar | Financial Post+0.2%
• Jan 22, 2021FX traders brush off ECB talk, bet euro-dollar has further to run - Markets - Business Recorder-0.2%

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• May 29, 2026Dollar Faces Bigger Hit Than Euro If Fed, ECB Resume Rate Cuts -- Market Talk+0.3%
• Mar 16, 2017Why Did The US Dollar Fall Despite FED Hike? | Exchange Rates UK-1.3%
• Mar 2, 2020US asset markets: What Fed cuts mean for US Treasuries and the dollar | articles | ING THINK-0.8%
• Mar 20, 2019Dollar on defensive as market awaits Fed decision, euro edges up - The HinduBusinessLine+0.4%
• Jan 23, 2023Dollar edges lower vs euro on ECB rate hike bets | Reuters-0.4%