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Democrats are poised to take control of Congress after midterms in which voter anger over fuel costs from the Iran war was a major factor. Brent has fallen to near $95 from about $110 earlier in the war, but gasoline averages $4.12 and diesel is about $2.50 above a year ago.
Retail fuel prices track a complex international crude and refined-product market, so a new Congress is unlikely to move them quickly. Diesel stays expensive for trucking and feed transport costs while Hormuz disruption persists.
npr.orgWilla RubinNov 5, 2026After 60 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.7% to +2.3%), and -1.9% over 20.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
