Dollar slides as US election drives oil and Treasury yields lower; sterling gains

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Dec 6, 2022Ringgit ends lower against US dollar as oil prices decline | Malay Mail-5.0%
• Oct 18, 2018Ringgit snaps 2-day gaining streak to end lower vs US dollar | FMT-4.3%
• Feb 3, 2020Canadian dollar slides to two-month low as China virus hits oil demand - The Globe and Mail-2.4%
• Aug 31, 2017Dollar Maintaining Data Inspired Gains, Yen Broadly Lower as Risk Aversion Eased - ActionForex+6.8%
• Jun 21, 2017Colombia's peso slides against US dollar as global oil prices tumble | The City Paper Bogotá+2.2%

After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.

• Dec 6, 2022Ringgit ends lower against US dollar as oil prices decline | Malay Mail-6.1%
• Sep 18, 2026Ringgit opens higher against US dollar as oil prices ease | The Star-0.3%
• Jul 26, 2021Ringgit ends lower against US dollar | Malay Mail+3.4%
• Mar 19, 2021RM opens 120 bps lower amid falling oil prices, US yields spike-1.8%
• Nov 29, 2022Ringgit retreats to open lower against US dollar | Malay Mail-0.4%

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Nov 26, 2020U.S. Dollar On Glide Path Lower as Fed Seen Eyeing Long-term Bond Yields-1.2%
• Nov 6, 2017U.S. Dollar Slides Against Emerging Markets on Low Yields - WSJ-0.1%
• Jul 30, 2026US Dollar: Real yields drive correction risk – ING — Octa-1.2%
• Jan 11, 2024Sterling gains vs dollar ahead of US inflation data+0.9%
• Oct 11, 2018Dollar slips on stock losses, lower bond yields-0.4%