Grain prices on both sides of the Atlantic continued to ease this week as traders awaited a possible resumption of Black Sea shipping following planned Russia-Ukraine talks. Chicago corn closed at $4.41 a bushel on Tuesday, down from $4.50 a week earlier, and wheat also fell over the week to $12.03.
Talks between Kyiv and Moscow are scheduled for November 10 and 11 in Abu Dhabi under US mediation.
Expectations of Black Sea corridor reopening and a larger Ukrainian corn harvest reduce the risk premium in grain prices, which points to lower corn and wheat prices if shipments resume.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.