
Chicago soybeans and soymeal extended their downtrend as US yields remain high, September US soybean crush fell to 5.41 million tonnes versus 5.46 expected, and the US harvest reached 88% complete. Soybean oil stocks also fell to 1,458 million pounds from 1,696 million the prior month.
A weak US crush and expected upward revision to US production in the USDA report point to ample supply and lower soybean meal and oil prices. The required monthly crush to meet USDA's forecast looks unlikely, adding bearish pressure.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
After 146 past bearish report events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.9%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.