
South America is on track for a record 2024/25 soybean crop, with Brazil expected to reach an all-time high while Argentina holds steady and Paraguay declines. Total output across Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay is about 8.41 billion bushels, up 9%.
The article also discusses the effects of recent U.S. tariffs and Argentina's export tax cuts.
A record South American harvest increases global soybean supply and should keep downward pressure on world soybean prices. Export tax cuts and tariffs will shape where that supply flows.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.