Black Sea grain shipments: several countries consider roles as guarantors

After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Jun 6, 2022Ukraine Cautious as Turkey, Russia Push to Restart Black Sea Grain Shipments - Bloomberg+0.1%
• Nov 22, 2022Black Sea grain corridor lives on-1.2%
• Oct 11, 2022CBOT Wheat Futures Slide Amid Worries Over Black Sea Grain Trade+3.1%
• Jun 2, 2022Ukraine seeks UN-backed mission to export grain shipments through Black Sea+0.1%
• May 17, 2023Black Sea deal extension sinks grain prices-1.4%

After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.

• Jun 6, 2022Ukraine Cautious as Turkey, Russia Push to Restart Black Sea Grain Shipments - Bloomberg+5.9%
• Nov 22, 2022Black Sea grain corridor lives on-1.5%
• Jun 2, 2022Ukraine seeks UN-backed mission to export grain shipments through Black Sea+4.8%
• May 17, 2023Black Sea deal extension sinks grain prices+2.4%
• Jun 29, 2022Ships going dark: Russia’s grain smuggling in the Black Sea+1.2%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.