
DTN tracked seven of eight key US fertilizer prices rising month over month in October, led by UAN28 up 4% and anhydrous up 3% to $1,007 per ton, while urea fell 2%. Purdue research found Brazilian farms spend about $85 per acre on fertilizer versus $57 in the US, and all eight products are higher year over year.
Rising nitrogen and phosphate prices raise feed grain and oilseed production costs and squeeze farm margins, which can tighten feed supply over time. Brazil's higher fertilizer burden is a structural cost disadvantage for its producers.
After 76 past bullish report events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 66 past bullish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.7%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.