[Morning report] Dollar weakens on US Treasury yield decline; crude oil plunges 8.29%

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Dec 6, 2022Ringgit ends lower against US dollar as oil prices decline | Malay Mail-5.0%
• Aug 28, 2026Dollar Strength and Increased Middle East Oil Flows Weigh on Crude Prices+9.2%
• May 2, 2019WEAK INFLATION ISN'T TRANSITORY -- COMMODITY PRICES HAVE BEEN FALLING FOR A DECADE -- A RISING DOLLAR IS ONE REASON WHY -- STOCKS REACT BADLY TO LESS DOVISH FED -- RISING BOND YIELDS BOOST THE DOLLAR -- CRUDE OIL LEADS COMMODITIES LOWER-2.3%
• Oct 21, 2026Dollar on back foot as US yields, crude prices dip; Aussie buoyed by hawkish RBA By Reuters-0.7%
• Feb 28, 2020Baht gains more ground, as US dollar weakens-2.6%

After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.

• Dec 6, 2022Ringgit ends lower against US dollar as oil prices decline | Malay Mail-6.1%
• Jul 30, 2024Crude Prices Retreat on the Prospects of Weaker Chinese Energy Demand-4.3%
• Oct 15, 2024Oil plunges 4% as Iran supply disruption concerns ease, demand outlook weakens-5.4%
• Oct 4, 2023Oil plunges $5 in biggest one-day drop in more than a year-3.8%
• Mar 5, 2025Declining crude oil and vegetable oil prices lower prices for sunflower seeds and oil in Ukraine-1.6%

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Feb 16, 2024Dollar retreats on weak US Retail Sales, bond yields slump-0.1%
• Oct 26, 2022Weak dollar, big U.S. crude exports buoy oil markets+0.0%
• Dec 14, 2023U.S. crude oil rises 3% on weaker dollar, slightly improved 2024 demand outlook-1.3%
• Dec 14, 2023Ringgit opens higher on declining US dollar index-1.3%
• Mar 31, 2020US dollar weakens as Fed measure weighs+0.7%