Loading…
JPMorgan estimates the global oil market returned to a surplus of 1.1 million b/d in September, widening to 1.4 million b/d in October, as Middle East exports recovered and demand softened. This contrasts with the IEA's October report, which projected continued deficits through year-end.
A surplus view implies less physical tightness than the IEA assumes, which weighs on crude prices and reduces the premium tied to Iran war supply risk.
ogj.comConglin XuNov 4, 2026After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 171 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.5% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -4.8% to +1.9%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
