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The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service projects Ukraine's 2026-27 grain ending stocks at a record 36.1 million tonnes, more than four times the 2025-26 level. Corn stocks are forecast near 20 million tonnes and wheat stocks at 11.8 million tonnes, as exports are sharply curtailed by the war.
Production of corn, wheat and barley has been revised higher.
Ukraine's inability to ship grain through the Black Sea is piling up supplies domestically, which weighs on world export prices for corn and wheat even as export flows shrink. The stock build signals a large overhang of grain that could cap any rally.
world-grain.comArvin DonleyNov 4, 2026After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
