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NOAA's October ENSO update showed El Niño strengthening, with an 83% or greater probability of strong-to-very-strong conditions through January–March 2027. The event could rank among the strongest since 1950, with risks to US Midwest harvest timing and grain transport.
A strong El Niño raises the risk of delayed harvests and disrupted supplies in key exporting regions, which can lift feed grain and oilseed prices. Markets are likely to price in these risks ahead of 2027 crops.
non-gmoreport.comKendra MorrisonNov 4, 2026After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
