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AHDB's latest UK market assessment shows fertiliser prices largely unchanged, with granular urea averaging £482/t and UK-produced ammonium nitrate at £486/t. Rising European gas prices linked to the Middle East conflict are raising nitrogen production costs.
Frontier warned gas-reliant plants could cut output.
Higher gas costs and possible plant curtailments tighten nitrogen supply, which keeps nitrate and urea prices firm into early 2027 and raises feed-grain production costs.
fwi.co.ukNov 4, 2026After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
