Black Sea Grain Export Security Remains Unresolved After G20 Meeting

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Jul 17, 2023Black Sea grain deal expires after Russia quits | Reuters+2.4%
• Jun 1, 2023Ukraine says Russia again blocking Black Sea grain export deal | Reuters-3.6%
• Jul 31, 2026EXCLUSIVE: Russian grain lobby says Kyiv's attacks threaten Black Sea exports, global food security | Reuters-1.0%
• Feb 26, 2022Black Sea Grain Export Disruptions Won't Be Easy to Replace, Analyst Says+12.1%
• Jan 25, 2022Frost risk remains for Black Sea crops: Grain market daily | AHDB-2.1%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jul 17, 2023Black Sea grain deal expires after Russia quits | Reuters-8.6%
• Jun 1, 2023Ukraine says Russia again blocking Black Sea grain export deal | Reuters-2.2%
• Feb 26, 2022Black Sea Grain Export Disruptions Won't Be Easy to Replace, Analyst Says+10.4%
• Aug 1, 2026Ukraine's Black Sea ports lose a third of grain export capacity, farmers' union says-0.1%
• Mar 17, 2023Russia Still Slow-Walking Ukraine Food Exports in Black Sea Grain Deal-1.0%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.