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Grain and oilseed prices fell at the end of Tuesday's session after the White House announced a Ukrainian and Russian delegation gathering in Washington, with a ceasefire statement scheduled for November 5 in the Oleshky area. The announcement follows an earlier local truce and civilian evacuation in the Kherson region.
Expectations of de-escalation and safer Black Sea shipping reduce the war risk premium in wheat, corn and oilseeds, pushing futures lower. Buyers may see temporary price relief, though the announcement itself does not yet change export volumes.
agroprofil.plAndrzej BąkNov 4, 2026After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 53 past bearish geopolitics events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
