Texas has received recent rain, but deep soil moisture remains short and most of the state is still in drought. Producers hope a historically strong El Niño forecast for this winter will recharge subsoil profiles.
Drought persistence in Texas could limit US winter wheat and cattle forage conditions, a modest supportive factor for grain and feed prices if the El Niño fails to deliver rain.
After 29 past neutral weather events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +2.3%), and -0.7% over 20.
After 20 past neutral weather events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +3.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.