
Japan's largest fertilizer supplier, the National Federation of Agricultural Cooperative Associations, will raise prices for the November-to-May season. Nitrogen products made from natural gas will rise up to 21.7 percent, and benchmark compound fertilizer will climb more than 15 percent.
The increases follow higher gas costs linked to the Middle East conflict, and phosphate and potash prices are also rising.
Higher gas-based nitrogen costs and Chinese phosphate export controls raise the cost of fertilizer inputs. This supports fertilizer prices globally and keeps pressure on farm margins.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.