The rand strengthened ahead of South Africa's municipal election day, trading at R16.56 per US dollar. Democrats' takeover of the US House and Senate triggered a sell-off in US tech stocks, and oil prices fell as Iran proposed an accelerated ceasefire that could fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Lower oil prices on ceasefire prospects reduce energy and freight costs that feed into feed production and transport. A firmer rand makes South African imports cheaper for local buyers.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.