Soybean oil is gaining a tax and cost advantage over canola in US renewable diesel, according to CMB News. US crushing capacity is expected to rise 25% over five years, with new plants scheduled through 2028.
Physical soybean indications in several origins show a mildly firmer bias.
Stronger biomass-based diesel demand and expanding crush capacity favour soybean oil as a biofuel feedstock, which supports oil prices and adds soybean meal supply for feed buyers.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 206 past neutral policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.3% to +1.8%), and -0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.