EUR/USD Price Forecast: Strengthens above 1.1200, but remains capped below 100-day SMA

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Sep 28, 2025USD/JPY strengthens to near 149.50 as US PCE data reinforces Fed dovish bets-0.3%
• Nov 25, 2025EUR/USD Forecast: Advances as US data, dovish Fed signal rate cut-0.6%
• Dec 22, 2023Peso strengthens to best rate against the US dollar since August-0.8%
• Jul 31, 2026EUR/USD Price Forecast — Euro (1.1501) Holds 1.15 as Eurozone GDP Doubles Forecast at 0.4% and HICP Hits 2.9%-0.1%
• Aug 2, 2024Forecasting the Coming Week: Focus remains on data and rate cut bets-0.3%

After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Nov 25, 2025EUR/USD Forecast: Advances as US data, dovish Fed signal rate cut+0.7%
• Jul 31, 2026EUR/USD Price Forecast — Euro (1.1501) Holds 1.15 as Eurozone GDP Doubles Forecast at 0.4% and HICP Hits 2.9%-0.0%
• Aug 2, 2024Forecasting the Coming Week: Focus remains on data and rate cut bets+1.2%
• Dec 14, 2023US Dollar Forecast: EUR/USD Rally Persists Following Fed and ECB+1.5%
• Oct 31, 2023Euro Holds Gains After Eurozone Inflation Comes In Below 3.0% But Core Remains 'Sticky'+1.2%